سجاد سلطان محمدي

Identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks are among the most important tasks in the initial stages of risk management. Various methods exist for eva‎luating and prioritizing risks, one of which is the use of multi-attribute decision-making methods. Despite the importance of multi-attribute decision-making methods, due to the issue of rank reversal, there are criticisms of these methods, which makes the eva‎luation process unreliable. On the other hand, research and development (R&D) projects move towards new processes and products, requiring significant investment and are usually accompanied by numerous uncertainties. In fact, most research projects are executed in a dynamic and complex environment where uncertainty and risk are inherent characteristics. Therefore, considering the importance of R&D projects, the presence of many uncertainties, and the significance of risk management in such projects, the aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the risks of R&D projects using a combination of the fuzzy COCOSO method and the WIL approach in a case study, which is named F-COCOSO-WIL. This research consists of three main phases. The first phase is identification and selection. In this phase, initially, articles in the relevant field were reviewed to examine the literature, and experts in the company under study were selected to obtain their opinions. Then, based on the literature review and expert opinions, 3 criteria and 6 sub-criteria were identified, including: Impact on objectives (sub-criteria: impact on cost, time, and quality), Probability of occurrence, and Management criterion (sub-criteria: detectability, manageability, and control), 29 risks in R&D projects, the WIL approach to prevent and reduce the rank reversal phenomenon, the FCOCOSO method for risk ranking, and the FDANP method for weighting criteria were selected and specified. In the second phase, named weighting and screening, initially, the 29 identified risks were screened using a fuzzy Delphi questionnaire, and finally, 19 final risks were determined. Subsequently, using the FDANP method, the 6 selected sub-criteria were weighted considering their interrelations. Finally, the third phase is ranking, where the 19 screened and finalized risks from the second phase were ranked using a combination of the fuzzy COCOSO method and the WIL approach, aimed at reducing the RR phenomenon. The results of this study showed that the top five prioritized risks in the company under study are, in order: inappropriate designs, lack of skilled human resources (technical knowledge and experience), inability to secure financial and liquidity resources, frequent changes in product features and designs, and complexities of new technology. Based on the sensitivity analyses conducted in this research, it was found that the proposed approach is resistant to the RR phenomenon and performs better than the fuzzy COCOSO method.

شناسايي ريسك , ارزيابي و اولويت بندي ريسك , پروژه‌هاي تحقيق و توسعه , تصميم‌گيري چند شاخصه فازي , تغيير رتبه

Risk identification , Risk Assessment and Prioritization , Research and Development (R&D) Projects , Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making (FMADM) , Rank Reversal

Sajad Soltanmohammadi

Dr. Mostafa Jafari