چكيده به لاتين
Climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges of the current century, which directly and indirectly affects human settlements, including rural settlements around Lake Urmia. One of the most important natural challenges that Iran is facing in recent years is the reduction of water resources and the drying up of Lake Urmia. This drying process has had a wide impact on the cities and villages around this lake. This research examines the solutions to reduce the impact of the villages around Urmia Lake on climate change. The main problem of this research is to identify the environmental, economic, social, and physical indicators to provide an optimal model for the settlements around Lake Urmia by analyzing them. In addition to identifying the challenges of the rural housing system, this study also provides effective implementation solutions for each village. The goals of this research include extracting the criteria and indicators for measuring the effects of environmental changes on the surrounding rural settlements in a general sense, measuring the physical, economic, social, and environmental effects of the drying up of Urmia Lake on the surrounding rural settlements in a specific sense, and presenting the optimal model of the system. According to the measurement of the indicators extracted in the surrounding areas, i.e., the surrounding rural settlements. To collect the required data, various sources were used, including the National Statistics Center, the Agricultural Jahad Organization, the data available in the geographic information system, detailed information of the villages, satellite images from Google Earth, and the geographic information of the villages. From among the 96 general indicators extracted, first, using the content analysis method (Goller matrix), special indicators (24 indicators) of the impact of climate change on settlements were extracted. Then, to analyze and measure this relationship, the combined method of factor analysis and network analysis (F'ANP) was performed using SPSS and Super Decision software, and finally the villages were stratified using GIS software according to the composite index formula. So that in 2006, 15.47% of the villages were severely affected by climate change, which decreased to 14.28% in 2016, indicating a relative improvement. However, the percentage of villages with high influence has increased from 44.04% in 2006 to 48.80% in 2016. This increase of 4.76% indicates that although the number of villages with high influence has decreased, a major part of the villages has been transferred to the category of high vulnerability. This displacement shows that although the intensity of the impacts may have decreased in some villages, there are still a large number of villages at high risk. Finally, after leveling the villages and identifying the undesirable villages (villages with very high and high impact), action plans were presented in accordance with the goals and policies mentioned in relation to each village to help local and national decision makers in future planning to deal with the negative effects of climate change and reduce the negative impact of rural settlements around Lake Urmia.
