چكيده به لاتين
One of the key factors influencing the achievement of the goals of Iran's industrial development strategy is inflation and its determining components. Since these factors can directly and indirectly affect industrial development strategies, and given the lack of a comprehensive study in this area, the present research aims to evaluate the factors affecting inflation in Iran and propose strategies for achieving macro-industrial development objectives. This study is developmental and applied in nature, using a descriptive-analytical approach to identify inflationary factors and their effects on industrial development strategies. The research data were collected from library sources including books, articles, journals and national statistical yearbooks. A multivariate regression method was used to analyze the effects of these components.
The research questions include What are the main factors influencing inflation in Iran? How do inflation and its determinants affect the achievement of industrial development program goals? What strategies and solutions can be used to achieve the goals of macro-industrial development programs?
The findings indicate that inflation is influenced by factors such as GDP growth, liquidity, unemployment rate, interest rate, government budget deficit, wages, national currency value, monetary base, economic sanctions, government efficiency, industrial infrastructure investment, taxation and global oil prices. The analyses show that current inflation has a significant negative impact on industrial value-added growth, while previous period inflation has a positive impact on industrial development by increasing the nominal income of industrial firms and reducing the real value of debt. These findings underscore the need for inflation management and the adoption of sustainable economic policies to promote industrial growth.
To mitigate the negative impact of inflation on industry and achieve the goals of Iran's industrial development plans, a number of strategies have been proposed. These include increasing investment in research and development (R&D), reducing import dependence, expanding non-oil exports, managing exchange rates, digitizing industries, developing industrial infrastructure, reforming the banking system, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), strengthening knowledge-based exports, and adjusting tariff and trade policies. Practical measures to implement these strategies include providing financial facilities, establishing research and development centers, supporting technology start-ups, developing industrial parks, improving the exchange rate system, and reforming trade regulations.
The results of this study suggest that controlling inflation through effective monetary and fiscal policies, increasing industrial productivity, and reducing dependence on external resources can facilitate the country's industrial development. Therefore, aligning economic policies with Iran's industrial development frameworks, including the National Technology and Innovation Development Document, Iran's Industrial Strategic Document, the Medium-Term Industrial and Production Plan, and the 2025 Vision Document, is essential for sustainable industrial growth.
