The Effect of Ambiguity Tolerance on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Discovery an‎d eva‎luation: The Mediating Role of Confirmation Bias

6/15/2026 12:00:00 AM

In today’s complex an‎d uncertain environments, identifying an‎d eva‎luating entrepreneurial opportunities requires specific cognitive an‎d psychological abilities an‎d traits. One of the most important of these traits is tolerance for ambiguity—meaning the degree to which an individual accepts an‎d engages with unclear, ambiguous situations that involve incomplete information. At the same time, cognitive processes such as confirmation bias can act as mental barriers, influencing entrepreneurs’ decision-making. This study aims to examine the effect of tolerance for ambiguity on the discovery an‎d eva‎luation of entrepreneurial opportunities, as well as the mediating role of confirmation bias. The research is applied in nature, follows a descriptive–correlational approach, an‎d is based on the structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) method. The statistical population consisted of entrepreneurs an‎d owners of small businesses in Iran, an‎d data were collected from 181 participants using stan‎dard questionnaires: MSTAT-II (tolerance for ambiguity), Rassin (confirmation bias), an‎d Kuckertz et al. (opportunity discovery an‎d eva‎luation). The findings revealed that tolerance for ambiguity has a significant positive effect on the discovery an‎d eva‎luation of entrepreneurial opportunities. Furthermore, confirmation bias significantly mediates the relationship between these two variables: as tolerance for ambiguity increases, the intensity of confirmation bias decreases, which in turn enhances the individual’s ability to analyze an‎d identify entrepreneurial opportunities. In addition, based on literature review an‎d supplementary analyses, other variables such as creativity, self-efficacy, mindfulness, risk-taking, extraversion, entrepreneurial al‎e‎rtness, curiosity, openness to experience, an‎d technological knowledge may also serve as potential mediators for future research. The results highlight the importance of fostering traits such as tolerance for ambiguity an‎d reducing cognitive biases in entrepreneurship education. Moreover, the findings can be applied in designing training an‎d counseling programs to improve opportunity-oriented decision-making among entrepreneurs, as well as in screening an‎d empowerment processes in incubators an‎d accelerators.

تحمل ابهام , سوگيري تأييد , كشف و ارزيابي فرصت‌هاي كارآفرينانه , ، روان‌شناسي كارآفريني , مدل‌سازي معادلات ساختاري

Ambiguity tolerance , Confirmation bias , Entrepreneurial opportunity discovery an‎d eva‎luation , Entrepreneurial psychology , Structural equation modeling

Aria Zamani

. Mohammadreza Parsanejad