Strategic Planning for Social an‎d Economic Resilience of the Tehran Metropolitan Area with a Futures Studies Approach

9/24/2025 12:00:00 AM

In the contemporary era, urban systems face increasing challenges an‎d uncertainties, pro‎mp‎ting a paradigm shift in planning from a sole focus on ʹsustainabilityʹ towards the more dynamic concept of ʹresilience.ʹ Resilience, defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances, reorganize after a crisis, an‎d adapt to new conditions, offers a more effective approach to managing change. The Tehran metropolitan area, as the political, economic, an‎d demographic heart of Iran, faces a set of complex socio-economic challenges that severely threaten its resilience. Traditional planning approaches, mainly based on extrapolating past trends an‎d linear predictions, are no longer capable of dealing with this level of complexity an‎d uncertainty. Therefore, this research posits the necessity of adopting a strategic an‎d future-oriented approach to ensure the security an‎d sustainable development of this vital region. The main objective of this research is to develop a comprehensive an‎d integrated framework for the strategic planning of socio-economic resilience in the Tehran metropolitan area, using a scenario-based foresight approach. The operational objectives include identifying the key components an‎d indicators of resilience, assessing the current level of resilience in the regionʹs counties to identify critical areas, an‎d finally, presenting a strategic-operational framework to enhance resilience against future crises. The research methodology is applied in its objective an‎d employs a mixed-methods (quantitative an‎d qualitative), descriptive-analytical approach. The research process is based on the multi-layered ʹResearch Onionʹ model an‎d utilizes an integrated set of foresight an‎d strategic analysis tools. Data were collected through documentary studies an‎d a survey method (the Delphi technique with the participation of 70 elites an‎d experts). For data analysis, specialized software such as MICMAC (for identifying key drivers), MACTOR (for actor analysis), Scenario Wizard (for scenario building), an‎d MULTIPOL (for strategy eva‎luation) were used, alongside quantitative methods like AHP an‎d DPSIR. The key findings of the research indicate a critical state of the system. Structural analysis (MICMAC) revealed that the regionʹs resilience system is highly complex an‎d unstable, with fundamental infrastructure variables such as ʹwater,ʹ ʹenergy,ʹ an‎d ʹpublic transportationʹ acting as key drivers. Actor analysis (MACTOR) uncovered deep structural conflicts among different governance blocs, which is the main obstacle to reaching consensus on development goals. The quantitative assessment of resilience showed significant spatial inequality among the counties, with Tehran an‎d Firoozkouh counties identified as the most resilient, an‎d counties like Pishva an‎d Varamin as the most vulnerable. The most significant an‎d alarming finding was the very high weight an‎d consistency of the ʹcollapse an‎d crisisʹ scenario compared to the ʹsustainable futureʹ an‎d ʹunbalanced developmentʹ scenarios, which underscores the systemʹs severe vulnerability an‎d the necessity for immediate action. Finally, by integrating the findings, this research provides an operational framework that includes a vision, mission, macro-goals, robust an‎d adaptive strategies, an‎d a set of prioritized, scenario-based programs an‎d projects for each county. This framework focuses on the strategic management of key drivers, managing conflicts among actors, an‎d reducing spatial inequalities to steer the region away from the path towards the crisis scenario an‎d guide it towards a sustainable an‎d resilient future.

تاب‌آوري اجتماعي و اقتصادي , برنامه‌ريزي راهبردي , آينده‌پژوهي , سناريو محور , منطقه كلان‌شهري تهران , پيشران‌هاي كليدي , تحليل ساختاري , تحليل بازيگران , نابرابري فضايي , عدم قطعيت

Socio-economic , Resilience , Strategic Planning , Scenario-Based , Tehran Metropolitan Area , Key Drivers , Structural Analysis , Actor Analysis

Amin Mohtajallah Yazdi

Dr. Mohammad Saleh Shokouhi Bidhendi