علي ملك ثابت

The subject of this study is to eva‎luate the effect of capacity building measures in the face of drought. The main purpose of this study is to develop a new Agent-Based approach to assess the vulnerability of farmers to drought, taking into account the effects of capacity building measures. The case study of this research is Mojen region located in Semnan province. The informal water market in the region was examined as a capacity-building measure in the face of drought. To assess drought vulnerability, 10 variables related to exposure (SPI, number of Cholleh), sensitivity (lan‎d area, water right, risk, tendency to low-water irrigation) an‎d adaptive capacity (experience, income, Presence in the water market, having a pool) was selec‎ted an‎d eva‎luated according to the conditions of the region. In this study, field research, questionnaires an‎d interviews with about 30 farmers were used. Agent-Based modeling based on the results of questionnaires was performed by considering 200 agents. To generate a long-term time series (100 years), the LARSWG model was used daily an‎d 50 years of observational rainfall data of Shahrod synoptic station near the case study area was introduced as input to the model. In addition, to simulate farmersʹ behavior based on field data, an‎d using a statistical relationship between some characteristics of farmers (lan‎d area, water area, experience ), the three-variable tstudent Coppola was generated. Also, ARIMA model was used to produce long-term time series of prices of various exchangeable waters (water right, Nashrieh an‎d Saran) in the region. In the Agent-Based modeling process, social interactions an‎d social network between farmers as well as some individual characteristics of farmers an‎d gardeners such as Profitability rate, tendency to deficit irrigation, learning rate, experience, etc. are considered. Finally, the vulnerability of farmers was assessed. By definition, farmersʹ vulnerability to drought conditions can be varied between 0 an‎d 2. Farmersʹ vulnerabilities in extreme, severe an‎d moderate drought were 0.95, 0.87 an‎d 0.82, respectively. It was observed that farmers with a tendency to low irrigation have up to 11% less vulnerability to drought than other farmers. Experienced farmers in the region are about 18% less vulnerable than other farmers. Considering the two scenarios of existence an‎d non-existence of water market, by applying the capacity building measure of water market, on average, more than 15% increase in water supply can be observed compared to the absence of water market

بازار آب رسمي و غير رسمي , آسيب پذيري , مدل عامل بنيان , منطقه مجن

Informal an‎d formal water market , vulnerability , agent-based model , Mojen region

Ali Maleksabet

Dr. Alizadeh