محسن غفاري

Patent analysis to determine the technologies referring to an industry is a method that has been used by technology management an‎d technology forecasting experts an‎d researchers for nearly two decades. This research attempts to predict future technologies an‎d study the technology-owning companies. In this research, the tire industry has been examined regarding its prominent role in the automotive an‎d future transportation industry. All tire-related patents in the past 30 years were extracted from the Derwent Innovation Index database using the search string an‎d IPC codes, an‎d the relevant technology areas were extracted with the help of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, which is an unsupervised machine learning method. Analysis of technologies an‎d prediction of future technology areas were performed according to the share an‎d growth rate of each technology an‎d the examination of trends an‎d technical indicators related to the tire industry an‎d the value chain, an‎d the technology areas that have been considered by tire industry innovators in the past 30 years were analyzed. In addition, this research examines key topics, technology leaders, an‎d strategies of leader companies in these topics, then uses the statistical method of Bass diffusion model to determine the promising technologies of the tire industry an‎d predict the future market of tire industry technologies in the next twenty years. The selec‎tion of leading technology companies was based not only on the number of patents, but also on the impact an‎d quality of their patents, which were carefully eva‎luated. Tire industry technologies include 12 areas, of which the technologies of "airless tires, quite tires, energy harvesting tires, run-flat tires an‎d high-performance tires" are in the dominant technology group, an‎d the areas of "smart tires, self-healing tires, sustainable material tires an‎d adaptive tread tires" are in the emerging technology group. Analysis of trends an‎d factors affecting these technologies shows that smart tire technology an‎d the sustainable tire technology field will be very popular in the future an‎d will become dominant an‎d widely used technologies in the tire industry in the future. Then we introduce them as Tire promising technologies. By using these tools an‎d methods mentioned an‎d analyzing the results, tire companies an‎d other economic an‎d industrial enterprises can take action to achieve a competitive advantage in technology, gain insights into the current an‎d future market share of leading companies, an‎d prepare effective roadmaps for their technological development.

تجزيه و تحليل پتنت , پيش بيني فناوري , صنعت تاير , يادگيري ماشين , مدل انتشار باس

Patent analysis , technology forecasting , tire industry , machine learning , Bass diffusion model

Mohsen Ghaffari

Alireza Aliahmadi