علي مهدوي نيا

Cost overruns an‎d uncertainty in financial estimates are fundamental challenges in construction projects, often leading to inefficiency an‎d project failure. To mitigate these issues, project managers need to selec‎t effective strategies under conditions where precise data is unavailable an‎d human judgments are prone to ambiguity. Despite the development of various models, most prior studies have relied on deterministic data. By overlooking the inherent ambiguity in engineering judgments, they have primarily focused on maximizing “utility” while neglecting the assessment of “Regret”—the potential negative consequences of a decision under critical conditions. This research aims to bridge this gap by developing a systematic model for prioritizing cost overrun risk response strategies. Initially, through a comprehensive literature review an‎d expert consultation, 11 key risk categories (including economic fluctuations, design errors, poor planning, etc.) an‎d their corresponding mitigation strategies were identified. Data were collected via specialized questionnaires distributed among construction industry experts (employers, consultants, an‎d contractors). To model the linguistic uncertainty inherent in expert opinions an‎d overcome the limitations of deterministic methods, a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach was adopted. Specifically, the Fuzzy VIKOR technique was employed due to its unique capability to propose a compromise solution an‎d consider the “Regret” index. Strategies were ranked based on four criteria: cost, time, efficiency, an‎d secondary risks. The findings indicate that for high-priority risks such as “Material Price Fluctuations,” strategies like “Barter Agreements” an‎d “Strategic Early Purchasing” are optimal. Similarly, for technical risks like “Design Errors,” strategies such as “Building Information Modeling (BIM)” an‎d “Double-checking drawings before tendering” ranked highest. The model developed in this study provides project managers with a scientific tool to adopt a proactive approach an‎d allocate limited organizational resources to the most effective control measures.

مديريت ريسك هزينه , پروژه‌هاي عمراني , تصميم‌گيري چندمعياره , ويكور فازي , شاخص تاسف , استراتژي پاسخ به ريسك

Cost Risk Management , Construction Projects , Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) , Fuzzy VIKOR , Regret Index , Risk Response Strategy

Ali Mahdavinia

Hasan Malekitabar