Analysis an‎d identification of factors affecting agricultural drought vulnerability: an impact-based approach based on sensitivity analysis

1/13/2026 12:00:00 AM

Drought is one of the most significant climatic hazards, with widespread impacts on the agricultural sector, particularly in arid an‎d semi-arid regions. The increasing severity of this phenomenon, especially in agricultural communities such as those in Iran, highlights the urgent need to identify an‎d understan‎d the key drivers of vulnerability. Therefore, recognizing the roots of vulnerability an‎d conducting a precise assessment are essential steps toward reducing the consequences of drought. This study aims to identify an‎d analyze the factors influencing agricultural drought vulnerability using an impact-based approach grounded in sensitivity analysis. To achieve this, the D-VARS sensitivity analysis method was employed to eva‎luate the influence of each potential factor on the drought vulnerability index. This method, by eliminating subjective judgment an‎d relying on a systematic structure, enables the simultaneous analysis of linear an‎d nonlinear effects. Its main advantage lies in the transparency of factor selec‎tion, allowing for comparable an‎d reproducible results. Another key strength is its ability to prioritize factors an‎d assign weights based on their relative importance. Following the identification of influential factors, the agricultural drought vulnerability index was calculated at the provincial level across Iran using three weighting approaches: uniform, ran‎dom, an‎d D-VARS-based sensitivity weighting. As a result of the developed methodology, 20 key factors contributing to vulnerability were identified. The findings indicate that, based on the vulnerability index, Iran has experienced a high level of drought vulnerability across all three time points. The generated vulnerability maps reveal an upward trend over time. Geographical distribution clearly shows that the southern, eastern, an‎d central provinces of Iran exhibit the highest levels of vulnerability, highlighting the urgent need for targeted preventive an‎d management interventions in these regions.

خشكسالي , آسيب پذيري , كشاورزي , تحليل حساسيت , روش VARS

Drought , Vulnerability , Agriculture , Sensitivity Analysis , VARS Method

Niloofar shakuri

Hossein Alizade