حامد داروني

Agricultural supply chains face growing pressure to ensure food security an‎d sustainability under climate change, resource limits, an‎d dynamic uncertainty. This thesis proposes an integrated modelling framework for the design of a sustainable, responsive, an‎d closed-loop agricultural supply chain for jujube products. The first part develops a data-driven multi-stage stochastic multi-objective model that jointly determines facility locations, inter-facility flows, inventory levels, an‎d shortage decisions while balancing three dimensions of sustainability: minimizing total economic cost, increasing social benefits, an‎d enhancing responsiveness. Environmental performance is controlled by imposing upper bounds on CO₂ emissions an‎d water consumption, an‎d circular economy principles are embedded through thermochemical conversion of agricultural waste into value-added biochar. Scenario paths for uncertain supply an‎d purchase prices are generated from historical data using a fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm, an‎d the resulting model is solved via the augmented epsilon-constraint method to obtain efficient trade-off solutions. The second part introduces a distributionally robust optimization model that focuses on temperature–yield uncertainty, again optimizing location an‎d operational decisions while minimizing costs, enforcing job-creation requirements, an‎d capping carbon emissions. A k-means clustering procedure is used to build data-driven ambiguity sets for the temperature–yield relationship an‎d to control operational risk in a transparent way. A real-world case study of the jujube industry in South Khorasan Province, Iran, demonstrates the effectiveness an‎d practicality of the proposed framework. Numerical results show that a modest 3% increase in cost can lead to improvements of about 25% in social benefits an‎d 24% in responsiveness, while appropriate conservatism levels reduce operational risk variability by roughly 88% an‎d yield a risk-adjusted performance score of 0.95, outperforming conventional stochastic an‎d robust optimization approaches. Overall, the thesis offers practical, data-driven guidance for planning circular an‎d closed-loop agricultural supply chains under multiple sources of uncertainty, an‎d clarifies the trade-offs among cost, risk, an‎d sustainability outcomes for decision makers.

زنجيره تامين غذايي-كشاورزي , پايداري , عدم قطعيت , بهينه سازي داده محور , عناب

Agri-food supply chain , Sustainability , Uncertainty , Data-Driven optimization , Jujube

Hamed Darouni

Dr. Farnaz Barzinpour